Overview of key regulatory trends in 2025–2026

The Baikal Lobridge Analytical Center has prepared an overview of the key regulatory trends determining the business and regulatory agenda in Russia in 2025–2026.

During the period under review, regulatory policy was shaped by several factors at once — economic, domestic political, and geopolitical — and was characterized by an increasing fiscal burden, increased control of certain types, the development of counter-sanctions mechanisms, and a restructuring of operating rules in a number of industries.

The report served as the basis for a Vedomosti publication, which highlighted the factors influencing regulatory policy ahead of the State Duma elections. Commenting on this, Baikal Lobridge CEO Eduard Voytenko noted that electoral considerations are not the primary driver of the regulatory agenda:

The results of the study can be found at the link. Below is a summary of the key trends.

The economic background remains tense. In 2025, the federal budget deficit was consistently revised from 0.5% to 2.6% of GDP, and in 2026 it is expected to remain at about 1.6% of GDP. The main reasons were the reduction in oil and gas revenues, sanctions pressure, lower world prices for hydrocarbons and the strengthening of the ruble. Against this background, the government is increasingly focusing on internal sources of income – business and the public.

An additional factor is the "cooling" of the economy. According to the estimates of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, the growth of exports, industrial production, investments, retail trade and real incomes of the population is slowing down. The GDP growth forecast for 2025-2026 has been significantly lowered compared to the estimates of 2024. In these circumstances, regulatory policy is increasingly being used as a tool for fiscal and structural adjustment of the economy.

The domestic political framework for 2025-2026 is determined by preparations for the State Duma elections. This increases the sensitivity of the government to the social and electoral effects of regulatory decisions. The risks of industries that are traditionally under the close attention of both regulators and society are increasing. For example, in the tobacco and alcohol industries. In addition, there will be increased attention to digital platforms, including marketplaces. Special attention is expected to be paid to retail chains in terms of product margins.

At the same time, a party agenda is being formed, which will determine the contours of legislative work for the next political cycle. For businesses, this means an increased importance of institutional dialogue with parliamentary structures and increased attention to the political timing of initiatives.

The geopolitical factor remains a key source of uncertainty. In 2025, the negotiation process with the United States resumed, including on economic issues, but the trajectory of the situation remains unstable. The basic scenarios are preservation of the status quo, escalation or slow normalization. The most likely scenario is to maintain a strict foreign policy framework, which increases the state's emphasis on import substitution, technological sovereignty, and special economic measures.

These processes are reflected in a number of stable regulatory trends that have already emerged in 2025 and will continue in the medium term.

Fiscal tightening

A further increase in the tax and quasi-tax burden is expected in 2025-2026. The focus is on the expansion of the excise range, the possible introduction of VAT on cross–border e-commerce, increased environmental and resource payments, and new fees in certain industries. A characteristic feature is the delegation of part of the regulation to the level of the Russian Government, which increases the role of by-laws and operational decisions.

Whitewashing the economy and strengthening control

The growing fiscal burden is accompanied by a large-scale program to reduce the share of the shadow sector. A set of measures has been prepared to "whitewash" trade, the labor market, cash turnover, as well as certain sensitive markets. An important element is the introduction of digital control tools, including a system for confirming the expectation of goods (SPOT) when moving products within the EAEU.

Regulation of the platform economy

E-commerce remains one of the fastest growing areas, which leads to more complex regulation. After the adoption of the basic law "On Certain issues of regulating the Platform Economy in the Russian Federation," attention is shifting to by-laws. At the same time, there remains a competitive confrontation between online platforms, classical retail, Russian manufacturers, and banks. The discussion focuses on the responsibility of platforms, the conditions of competition and the expansion of the list of regulated goods.

Counter-sanctions measures and protection of the domestic market

The government remains committed to limiting imports and supporting Russian manufacturers. In 2025, work on changing customs, tariff and non-tariff measures has noticeably intensified. The main tool is to increase duties on categories of goods from "unfriendly" countries through amendments to Russian Government Decree No. 2240. In 2026, the trend will continue, while more complex market protection mechanisms are being discussed, including linking restrictions not only to HS codes, but also to trademarks.

Foreign investment: a two-circuit model

The regulation of foreign investments develops according to a double logic. On the one hand, control over strategic assets and transactions is being strengthened, and counter-sanctions restrictions remain in place. On the other hand, more flexible modes are being formed to attract "new" investments, for example, the In account mechanism. At the same time, possible conditions for the return of foreign companies are being discussed in the public field, with an emphasis on a selective approach and protection of the interests of Russian players.

Redistribution of property

In 2025, the development of asset circulation mechanisms continued, in relation to both foreign and Russian companies. The practice of seizing and transferring assets to the State is complemented by targeted exceptions, which increases the importance of communications and individual solutions.

Consumer market and traceability

The labeling system is expanding, control over certificates and supply chains is being strengthened, and attention to marketplaces is increasing. The Honest Sign system continues to integrate into the regulatory field not only at the level of expanding product categories, but also through increased control and automated detection of violations. Regulation is largely focused on fiscal goals and digital traceability of turnover.

Government support and localization

Support volumes, especially for SMEs, are decreasing and becoming more targeted. In 2026, government support will continue, but it will increasingly be linked to specific investment commitments, KPIs, and participation in national projects, as the regulator aims to use federal budget funds more efficiently and will be able to maintain them only with proven support measures in a specific industry. At the same time, the requirements for localization of products and criteria of "Russian origin" in the fields of pharmaceuticals, medical products, electronic products, etc. are being tightened. The main tool is the localization scoring system.

Labor market and migration

The regulatory framework is shifting towards limiting low-skilled migration, strengthening control over employment, and involving businesses in the demographic agenda. The main event in this regard is the adoption of a new Concept of state Migration Policy for 2026-2030. In addition, there is increasing attention to platform employment and substitution of labor relations.

Strengthening antimonopoly control

In 2025-2026, the antimonopoly agenda is intensifying and the hardware weight of the FAS of Russia is growing. Against the background of weakening external competition, the government pays more attention to the risks of market concentration and abuse of market power, especially in the IT industry. At the same time, tools for identifying anti-competitive practices are being expanded (including through AI), and tougher approaches to responsibility are being discussed. For businesses, this means an increased importance of preventive assessment of antimonopoly risks.

Digital sovereignty

Regulation continues to evolve towards digital sovereignty and increased control. The agenda focuses on import substitution in critical information infrastructure, increased security requirements and increased responsibility in the field of personal data. A separate area is the formation of regulatory approaches to the use of artificial intelligence technologies, for which 2026 may be crucial.

New regulation for "old" industries

A separate trend in 2025-2026 is the formation of a comprehensive regulatory framework for industries that were previously in the zone of fragmented or limited regulation. We are talking about dietary supplements, tourism, nicotine-containing products, ready meals and a number of other segments. The government consistently eliminates legal uncertainties by consolidating business requirements, control mechanisms, and responsibilities. This work will be continued in 2026.

These regulatory trends were the subject of an open discussion at the Corporate GR Forum, held on February 5, 2026 in Moscow. The forum participants described how these changes are already affecting business and what solutions companies have to look for in a rapidly changing regulatory environment.