Baikal Lobridge Analytical Center presents a report examining the transformation of Germany’s foreign economic and foreign policy strategy amid increasing fragmentation of the global system. The study identifies a transition from the universal partnership model characteristic of globalization to a more pragmatic, multi-layered framework of engagement based on regional coalitions and the management of critical dependencies.
Below is the summary of key takeaways from the report.
Key Drivers
The transformation is driven by a combination of external and domestic factors. These include declining trust in the United States as a guarantor of European security, erosion of consensus within the EU, geopolitical conflicts, and disruptions to global supply chains. At the same time, internal constraints are intensifying: slowing economic growth in Germany, signs of deindustrialization, rising military expenditures, and declining public trust in institutions.
Against this backdrop, a shift in foreign policy logic is underway: access to energy, food, water, and critical materials is increasingly viewed as a core component of national security. This creates demand for diversified partnerships and alternative channels of cooperation, including beyond Europe.
Scenarios for Germany’s Partnerships
The report outlines three core scenarios for the development of Germany’s external relations. The first involves deepening integration within a “Greater Europe” through the expansion of minilateral formats (Weimar+, E3, E5, NB8), which could serve as platforms for coordinating defense, economic, and resource policies. The second scenario предполагает selective engagement with China based on “pragmatic cooperation,” maintaining dependencies in certain sectors while simultaneously seeking to reduce them. The third scenario focuses on expanding resource partnerships in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia, where the key constraint lies in the infrastructure and logistical feasibility of such projects.
The analysis shows that the emerging model of international relations is increasingly defined not by universal rules of globalization, but by the management of critical dependencies. In this context, Germany is seeking to balance continued European integration with diversification of external ties and the strengthening of resource resilience.
Key success factors for this model include access to raw materials and export markets, institutionalization of flexible cooperation formats, and the development of transport and port infrastructure, including the Rhine–Danube and Baltic–Adriatic corridors. At the same time, deeper regional cooperation carries risks, including fragmentation within the EU, limited capacity to replace the role of the United States in the short term, and persistent global instability.
Conclusions
Germany is not abandoning existing international institutions but is rethinking them through the lens of efficiency and manageability. A multi-layered system of foreign economic and political relations is emerging, where resilience is achieved not through universal alliances but through a combination of complementary regional and thematic coalitions. In this new configuration, competitiveness is defined by a state’s ability to adaptively manage dependencies, control resource flows, and maintain strategic autonomy in an increasingly fragmented global order.