Eduard Voytenko, CEO and Managing Partner at Baikal Lobridge, provided expert commentary in an article by Vedomosti on the consequences of foreign companies leaving Russia between 2022 and 2025. We publish the extended version of his comment below.
What the Vedomosti article is about
According to the publication, between 2022 and 2025 companies from countries classified by Russia as “unfriendly” lost more than $610 billion in revenue and at least $16 billion in net profit in Russia after leaving the market or suspending their operations. At the same time, businesses from friendly countries expanded their presence and doubled their revenue, occupying market niches that had become available.
Assessing the losses: $600 billion is a realistic figure
The losses stem from several factors: asset write-offs, sales of businesses at a discount, the transfer of property to the state, payment of the so-called exit tax, as well as revenue and profits that companies failed to earn after leaving the market.
An analysis by country and sector confirms that the estimate of $600 billion in unrealized revenue appears justified and corresponds to the actual dynamics of the market.
Why large companies left more often, while small and medium-sized businesses stayed
Large corporations, especially publicly listed ones, faced unprecedented pressure from shareholders and investors. For them, remaining in the market meant reputational risks that outweighed any short-term profits, as well as the threat of secondary sanctions that could affect their global operations. Decisions were therefore made at the level of boards of directors and majority shareholders, who prioritized protecting the global portfolio rather
Small and medium-sized businesses, by contrast, were more likely to maintain their presence in the market. Such companies are less visible to sanctions authorities and public campaigns. They often occupy niche specializations that make them critically important for local markets. They also do not face the same obligations to stock market regulators and institutional investors, while the cost of existing the market may be economically unjustified.
At the same time, the division between “large companies that left” and “smaller ones that stayed” is not absolute: a significant number of major players also maintained their presence — either in their original form, through rebranding, or by transferring operations to local management.
Will Western companies return after sanctions are lifted?
Baikal Lobridge expects Western businesses to return actively if a significant portion of sanctions is lifted and the geopolitical situation stabilizes. This forecast is based on several factors. The Russian market remains highly profitable for a number of sectors, which continues to attract pragmatic business interest. Strategic interest in resource projects also remains strong.
In addition, Baikal Lobridge is already receiving requests for analytical assessments from companies considering potential re-entry scenarios. Businesses are conducting preparatory work in order to enter the market as quickly as possible once restrictions are lifted.
Who will return first
The first candidates for a return are likely to be companies that managed to sell their assets at a favorable price while securing clear buyback conditions. They have retained both their understanding of the market and the legal framework necessary for reintegration.
Players in sectors with high barriers to entry — such as technological complexity, high investment thresholds, and long development cycles — are also likely to return, particularly where these barriers proved too difficult for local companies and prevented a full replacement of the departing players.
According to Baikal Lobridge’s assessment, the strongest interest is likely to come from companies in the resource sector, including oil and gas and energy. For example, TotalEnergies continues to hold stakes in LNG projects. A separate decree by the Russian president technically leaves open the possibility of ExxonMobil returning to the Sakhalin-1 project.
High-tech sectors — including IT, pharmaceuticals, electronics, and specialized equipment — are also likely to see renewed activity. Major FMCG companies may also return: many of them have buyback options, retain strong consumer loyalty, and operate in mass-market segments where some niches remain unfilled.
More details are available in the article by Vedomosti.